Acute Pancreatitis in Youth Linked to Diabetes Risk: Study Identifies Key Predictors

The study led to the following findings:

• Of the 187 enrolled participants, 137 (73%) underwent diabetes screening at 3 months, 144 (77%) at 12 months, and 137 (73%) had imaging data available.
• At 3 months, 16% developed prediabetes/diabetes (preDM: 21; DM: 1).
• At 12 months, 16% developed prediabetes/diabetes (preDM: 18; DM: 5).
• Univariate associations with preDM/DM at 12 months included:
• Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP): 52% in the preDM/DM group vs. 17% in the no DM group.
• Median IL-6 levels: 910 pg/ml in the preDM/DM group vs. 196 pg/ml in the DM group.
• Median CRP levels: 4.16 mg/L [IQR 1.67–10.7] in the preDM/DM group vs. 1.55 mg/L in the no DM group.
• The optimal multivariable model using clinical variables to predict preDM/DM included severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and age [AUC = 0.80].
• When imaging markers were included, the ideal model incorporated SAP, CRP, IL-6, subcutaneous fat area, age, and autoimmune disease presence [AUC = 0.82].

The authors noted that their predictive model could be valuable during the initial acute pancreatitis episode, as this is believed to be the point when the underlying injury leading to prediabetes or diabetes begins. "Utilizing this model may assist in planning follow-up care and identifying specific patients at higher risk for developing prediabetes or diabetes, enabling targeted future testing," the researchers concluded.

Reference:

Ginzburg, G., Debnath, P., Zhang, Y., Ata, N. A., Farrell, P. R., Garlapally, V., Kotha, N., Thompson, T., Vitale, D. S., Trout, A. T., & Abu-El-Haija, M. (2024). Clinical and imaging predictors for the development of diabetes mellitus following a single episode of acute pancreatitis in youth. Digestive and Liver Disease. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dld.2024.10.009