Diabetes Incidence Surges 62 Percent in India: Study Highlights Alarming Rise, Regional Gaps, and Future Burden
India: India is facing a rapidly escalating diabetes crisis, with significant state-wise differences in disease burden and projections indicating an even steeper rise by 2031, according to a new study based on data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 1990–2021. The findings were published online in Frontiers in Endocrinology on 12 May 2025.
The analysis offers a comprehensive look at the trends in diabetes incidence, prevalence, mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) across the country. Using data from the GBD database, Shubham Chauhan, Evidence for Policy and Learning, Global Center for Evidence Synthesis, Chandigarh, India, and colleagues evaluated long-term trends and utilized ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models to forecast the trajectory of the disease over the next decade. Their findings raise serious concerns for public health, especially in southern and western Indian states.
The key findings were as follows:
- Between 1990 and 2021, the age-standardized incidence of diabetes in India increased from 162.74 to 264.53 cases per 100,000 population.
- The overall annual percentage change (APC) in diabetes incidence during this period was 0.63%.
- Notable spikes in incidence were observed during 1996–1999 and 2005–2011, with APCs of 2.25% and 2.07%, respectively.
- The age-standardized mortality rate due to diabetes rose from 23.09 to 31.12 per 100,000 population between 1990 and 2021.
- States such as Tamil Nadu, Goa, and Karnataka reported the highest DALYs related to diabetes.
- By 2031, the prevalence of diabetes in India is projected to reach 8585.45 per 100,000 population.
- DALYs are forecasted to exceed 1241.57 per 100,000 by 2031, highlighting a growing burden on the healthcare system.
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