Estimated glucose disposal rate novel indicator of new-onset CVD in individuals with CKM syndrome: Study

A new study published in the journal of BMC Diabetology and Metabolic Syndrome showed an increased estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) was associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in people with Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic (CKM) syndrome stages 0–3.

Although the development of cardiovascular diseases is significantly influenced by insulin resistance, little is known about the relationship between the estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR), an indicator of insulin resistance, and the risk of developing new-onset CVD in people with cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome stage 0–3.

Given how important CKM syndrome is to the development and occurrence of CVD, it is important to look at the connection between eGDR and CVD incidence in people with CKM syndrome stages 0–3. This work might contribute to a better understanding of CKM and support early integrative actions to reduce the vulnerability of the population to CVD.

The study divided participants into four groups based on their eGDR levels which reflects insulin resistance. Those with the lowest eGDR levels (<7.37 mg/kg/min) served as the reference group, while individuals with higher eGDR levels (≥11.16 mg/kg/min) showed a significantly lower risk of developing CVD. The odds ratios (ORs) for CVD occurrence across increasing eGDR levels were 1.00 (reference), 0.81, 0.72, and 0.74, indicating that individuals with higher eGDR levels had up to a 28% lower risk of developing CVD compared to the reference group.

For heart disease, the trend was similar, with ORs of 1.00, 0.81, 0.72, and 0.75 across eGDR levels. The stroke risk also declined with increasing eGDR, with ORs of 1.00, 0.91, 0.80, and 0.71. These findings suggest that insulin resistance, as indicated by lower eGDR levels, is strongly associated with a heightened risk of cardiovascular conditions.

For all patients with CKM syndrome stages 0–3, the RCS analysis found a negative linear association between eGDR and the probability of new-onset stroke, and an almost inverse “L” correlation between eGDR and the incidence of HD and CVD. Additionally, the percentages for CVD, HD, and stroke that were mediated by BMI were 41.98%, 43.05%, and 43.23%, respectively. There were no noteworthy interactions discovered. Overall, the eGDR was a novel indication of new-onset CVD in people with CKM syndrome stages 0–3, and the relationship between eGDR and CVD risk was partially mediated by BMI. 

Source:

Tian, J., Chen, H., Luo, Y., Zhang, Z., Xiong, S., & Liu, H. (2025). Association between estimated glucose disposal rate and prediction of cardiovascular disease risk among individuals with cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome stage 0–3: a nationwide prospective cohort study. Diabetology & Metabolic Syndrome, 17(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13098-025-01626-7