New Method Detects Diabetes Risk Using Continuous Glucose Monitoring: Study Reveals
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A recent study published in Communications Medicine by the University of Tokyo introduces a non-invasive method to assess blood glucose regulation, offering an approach for early diabetes risk detection without the need for blood samples.
Traditional diagnostic tools for diabetes, such as fasting blood glucose tests and HbA1c measurements, often miss early signs of impaired glucose regulation. These methods typically capture only snapshots of glucose levels, potentially overlooking fluctuations that could indicate developing issues. In contrast, continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) provides real-time data on glucose variations throughout the day, presenting a more dynamic view of an individual's glucose regulation.
The team analyzed 64 individuals without a prior diabetes diagnosis, using a CGM device, oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTT), and clamp tests that are used to assess insulin sensitivity and glucose metabolism.
They then validated their findings with an independent dataset and mathematical simulations.
Their analysis showed that AC_Var, a measure of glucose-level fluctuations, strongly correlates with the disposition index, a well-established predictor of future diabetes risk.
Notably, the CGM-based model outperformed traditional markers such as fasting blood glucose and HbA1c in predicting the disposition index.
Dr. Shinya Kuroda, a professor at the University of Tokyo's Graduate School of Science and co-author of the study, emphasized the significance of their findings:
"By analyzing CGM data with our new algorithm, we identified individuals with impaired glycemic control—even when standard diagnostic tests classified them as 'normal.' This means we can potentially detect issues much earlier, creating an opportunity for preventive interventions before diabetes is diagnosed."
The research team's development of a web application allows individuals and healthcare providers to easily calculate these CGM-based indices, facilitating broader access to early diabetes screening.
Reference:
Sugimoto, H., Hironaka, Ki., Nakamura, T. et al. Improved detection of decreased glucose handling capacities via continuous glucose monitoring-derived indices. Commun Med 5, 103 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-025-00819-5
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