Social distancing may have to remain till 2022, say Harvard researchers

According to the study published in the journal Science, resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.

For the study, the researchers examined a range of likely SARS-CoV-2 transmission scenarios through 2025 and assessed non-pharmaceutical interventions that could mitigate the intensity of the current outbreak.

They used what is known about the pandemic and different coronaviruses to create different transmission scenarios.

"We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded," said the study.

"To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity," it added.

The researchers cautioned that their model will have to be tailored to local conditions and updated as more accurate data become available.

According to data from Johns Hopkins University, COVID-19 has so far infected over 2 million people and led to the deaths of over 137,000 in the world.