Simple blood test predicts cognitive decline in Alzheimer's patients, new study shows

Insulin resistance detected by routine triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index can flag people with early Alzheimer's who are four times more likely to present rapid cognitive decline, according to new research presented at the European Academy of Neurology (EAN) Congress 2025.

Neurologists at the University of Brescia reviewed records for 315 non-diabetic patients with cognitive deficits, including 200 with biologically confirmed Alzheimer’s disease. All subjects underwent an assessment of insulin resistance using the TyG index and a clinical follow-up of 3 years. When patients were divided according to TyG index, those in the highest third of the Mild Cognitive Impairment AD subgroup deteriorated far more quickly than their lower-TyG peers, losing >2.5 points on the Mini Mental State Examination per year (hazard ratio 4.08, 95% CI 1.06–15.73). No such link appeared in the non-AD cohort.

“Once mild cognitive impairment is diagnosed, families always ask how fast it will progress”, said lead investigator Dr Bianca Gumina. “Our data show that a simple metabolic marker available in every hospital laboratory can help identify more vulnerable subjects who may be suitable candidates for targeted therapy or specific intervention strategies.”

While insulin resistance has been linked to the onset of Alzheimer’s disease, its role in how quickly the condition progresses has received less attention. This study aimed to fill that gap by focusing on its impact during the prodromal mild cognitive impairment (MCI) stage, when patients follow highly variable trajectories. The researchers used the TyG index, which offers a low-cost, routinely available surrogate for insulin resistance, to explore whether metabolic dysfunction could help predict the pace of cognitive decline after diagnosis.