Novo Nordisk Projects Oral Weight-Loss Pills to Take One-Third of GLP-1 Market by 2030

"We believe that the pill could actually represent up to a third-plus of that market overall as we go," he added.

Helfgott said Novo's updated view reflects a better understanding of behaviour in what he described as an increasingly consumer-driven obesity market, where many patients pay out of pocket.

Novo launched a daily oral ​version of Wegovy in the U.S. earlier this month with a starting cash price ​of $149 per month.

The company believes its newly launched oral version of Wegovy can expand treatment to groups that ‌have so far ‍been under-represented in GLP-1 use, including men and younger patients. Some potential users of the pill it launched ‍last week do not fully recognize obesity as a disease or are "in denial," Helfgott ‌said. He said the pill "opens categories of population" that have been reluctant to take the injection treatments.

The reassessment comes as analysts debate the long-term role of oral GLP-1s. TD Cowen analysts last year estimated that the pills will account for a mid-teens percentage share of global obesity drug sales by 2030, a market that could total $150 billion by then.

Late last year, Novo ran patient segmentation and targeting exercises, Helfgott said, using artificial intelligence models and other tools to classify potential new users of GLP-1s into six or seven behavioral groups. This is helping the drugmaker understand what motivates people to ‍begin taking a weight-loss drug, he said.

NOVO WANTS STRONG U.S. LAUNCH OF PILL FIRST Helfgott and Novo international operations chief Emil Kongshoj Larsen said the company is prioritizing the U.S. launch of its obesity ‍pill, arguing a ⁠strong rollout could create a "global halo ⁠effect" as other markets look to U.S. adoption patterns.