This research from the Copenhagen School Health Records Register analyzed BMI measurements taken from 276,747 children born between 1930 and 1982. The participants, aged 6 to 15 years at the time of measurement, were followed through national health registers from 1977 to 2022. The team was set to determine whether childhood BMI patterns were linked to COPD diagnoses occurring from age 40 onwards.
During the decades-long follow-up, 18,227 women and 15,789 men were diagnosed with COPD. Using Cox proportional hazard regression models, this research assessed the relationship between 5 distinct BMI trajectories (below average, average, above average, overweight, and obesity) and the risk of developing COPD later in life. Analyses were conducted separately for females and males.
The results revealed that individuals who maintained above-average, overweight, or obese BMI trajectories throughout childhood were significantly more likely to develop COPD as adults. For females, those in the “above-average” BMI category had a 10% higher hazard of COPD when compared to peers with an average BMI, while those in the “overweight” group had a 26% higher hazard.
The risk was most pronounced among females with obesity in childhood, who faced a 65% greater chance of developing COPD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.65; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50–1.83). Males expressed similar trends, which reinforced the consistency of the association across genders.
Also, the girls with a “below-average” BMI trajectory experienced a reduced risk of COPD, with a hazard ratio of 0.91 (95% CI: 0.87–0.95), suggesting that leaner body types in childhood may offer some protection against the disease later in life.
This study suggest that the link between increased childhood BMI and COPD in adulthood highlights an often-overlooked pathway connecting early-life metabolic health and long-term respiratory outcomes. Overall, the findings emphasize the need for early preventive strategies targeting healthy growth and weight maintenance in children.
Source:
Hansen, F. R., Pedersen, D. C., Madsen, F., Backman, H., Jensen, J.-U. S., Linneberg, A., Leth-Møller, K. B., & Baker, J. L. (2025). Childhood body size and risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in adulthood: a prospective cohort study. Respiratory Medicine, 108416, 108416. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rmed.2025.108416
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