Type 1 Diabetes Cases Could Increase 29 Percent Globally by 2049, Study Estimates - Video

A new global analysis projects a substantial rise in the burden of Type 1 diabetes (T1D) over the next two decades, with the number of people living with the condition expected to increase by 29% worldwide, from 9.4 million in 2025 to 12.1 million by 2049.

The findings, which will be presented at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) Annual Meeting in Milan, estimate that new T1D cases each year will also rise by 14%, from 530,024 in 2025 to 605,058 by 2049.

Researchers led by Steno Diabetes Center Odense, Denmark, developed the projections using the DIAMOND-T1D model. The model considers historical T1D incidence, population age structures, survival patterns and the introduction of insulin across different countries.

Although high- and middle-income countries currently account for most people living with T1D, the fastest relative growth in prevalence is expected in low-income countries. Researchers say this could be driven partly by improved access to insulin, glucose monitoring and healthcare, allowing more people with T1D to survive longer.

The model estimates that annual deaths among people living with T1D worldwide could increase from 361,383 in 2025 to 537,621 by 2049.

Children and adolescents will continue to represent a significant proportion of new cases. In 2025, people aged 0–19 are estimated to account for 42% of new T1D cases globally, rising to 49% in low-income countries.

The researchers emphasize that reliable T1D data remain limited, particularly across low- and middle-income countries. Better epidemiological information is therefore essential for planning healthcare services and ensuring access to life-saving treatment.

The projections highlight the growing global need for affordable insulin, glucose monitoring, early diagnosis and quality diabetes care. Researchers say improving access, particularly in resource-limited settings, will be critical as the worldwide T1D population continues to expand.

REFERENCE: Estimates predict 2.7 million extra people living with type 1 diabetes globally by 2049, a 29% increase compared with 2025; European Association for the Study of Diabetes