New Blood Test Predicts Liver Disease Risk a Decade in Advance: Study Finds - Video

A simple blood analysis can predict the risk of developing severe liver disease, according to a new study from Karolinska Institutet published in The BMJ. Researchers have developed a predictive model called CORE that uses routine blood test data to identify individuals at risk of developing severe liver disease within the next decade—potentially allowing for much earlier intervention and improved outcomes.

Liver diseases such as cirrhosis and cancer often go undetected until they reach advanced stages, leading to poor prognosis.

To build and validate the model, researchers analyzed data from over 480,000 individuals in Stockholm who had undergone health checks between 1985 and 1996. Each person was followed for up to 30 years. The CORE model incorporates five key variables: age, sex, and levels of three common liver enzymes—AST, ALT, and GGT. These enzymes are already frequently measured in standard blood panels, making the model easy to apply in routine healthcare.

The model’s predictive power is impressive. It accurately identified individuals who went on to develop serious liver conditions—including liver cirrhosis, cancer, or requiring a transplant—in 88% of cases. This represents a significant improvement over the FIB-4 method, which is currently used but less suited to general population screening.

The CORE model was further validated using population groups in Finland and the UK, demonstrating similarly strong performance. A web-based calculator has already been launched for clinicians, and the researchers hope to integrate the model into electronic health records. Further testing in high-risk groups, such as those with type 2 diabetes or obesity, is still needed, but the model offers a promising new approach to liver disease prevention.

Reference: Rickard Strandberg, Fredrik Åberg, Juho V Asteljoki, Panu K Luukkonen, Veikko Salomaa, Antti Jula, Annamari Lundqvist, Satu Männistö, Markus Perola, Mats Talbäck, Niklas Hammar, Hannes Hagström. Use of new CORE risk score to predict 10 year risk of liver cirrhosis in general population: population based cohort study. BMJ, 2025; 390: e083182 DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2024-083182