Medical Bulletin 03/October/2025 - Video

Here are the top medical news for the day:

New Blood Test Predicts Liver Disease Risk a Decade in Advance: Study Finds

A simple blood analysis can predict the risk of developing severe liver disease according to a new study from Karolinska Institutet published in The BMJ. Researchers have developed a predictive model called CORE that uses routine blood test data to identify individuals at risk of developing severe liver disease within the next decade—potentially allowing for much earlier intervention and improved outcomes.

Liver diseases such as cirrhosis and cancer often go undetected until they reach advanced stages, leading to poor prognosis.

To build and validate the model, researchers analyzed data from over 480,000 individuals in Stockholm who had undergone health checks between 1985 and 1996. Each person was followed for up to 30 years. The CORE model incorporates five key variables: age, sex, and levels of three common liver enzymes—AST, ALT, and GGT. These enzymes are already frequently measured in standard blood panels, making the model easy to apply in routine healthcare.

The model’s predictive power is impressive. It accurately identified individuals who went on to develop serious liver conditions—including liver cirrhosis, cancer, or requiring a transplant—in 88% of cases. This represents a significant improvement over the FIB-4 method, which is currently used but less suited to general population screening.

The CORE model was further validated using population groups in Finland and the UK, demonstrating similarly strong performance. A web-based calculator has already been launched for clinicians, and the researchers hope to integrate the model into electronic health records. Further testing in high-risk groups, such as those with type 2 diabetes or obesity, is still needed, but the model offers a promising new approach to liver disease prevention.

Reference: Rickard Strandberg, Fredrik Åberg, Juho V Asteljoki, Panu K Luukkonen, Veikko Salomaa, Antti Jula, Annamari Lundqvist, Satu Männistö, Markus Perola, Mats Talbäck, Niklas Hammar, Hannes Hagström. Use of new CORE risk score to predict 10 year risk of liver cirrhosis in general population: population based cohort study. BMJ, 2025; 390: e083182 DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2024-083182

What’s Putting India at Risk for Diabetes and Obesity? ICMR Study Reveals the Hidden Dietary Culprit

A new study by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), published in Nature Medicine, warns that India’s high consumption of refined carbohydrates—mainly white rice and wheat, is significantly driving the country's escalating rates of diabetes, prediabetes, and obesity. The research, conducted under the ICMR-INDIAB project in collaboration with the Madras Diabetes Research Foundation (MDRF), analyzed the dietary habits of 1,21,077 adults from both urban and rural areas across 36 states.

The cross-sectional survey revealed that carbohydrates make up a staggering 62% of Indians’ daily caloric intake—one of the highest rates globally. Much of this comes from low-quality sources such as white rice, milled grains, and added sugar. Regional dietary patterns further highlight the imbalance: while white rice dominates diets in the South, East, and Northeast, wheat is more common in the North and Central regions. Despite some regional diversity, the study found metabolic risks remained consistent across states, regardless of the primary carbohydrate source.

“Replacing just 5% of daily calories from carbohydrates with plant or dairy proteins significantly lowers risk of developing diabetes and prediabetes,” said Dr V Mohan, senior author and Chairman of MDRF. He warned that “more than sugar, it is the rice and wheat which is eaten in excess and which are fuelling NCDs, especially diabetes.”

Dr RM Anjana, lead author and President of MDRF, emphasized, “Simply switching from white rice to whole wheat or millets is not enough unless total carbohydrate intake decreases and more calories come from plant or dairy proteins.”

Despite their known benefits, dairy and animal protein intakes remain low nationwide, and millets are staples in only three states: Karnataka, Gujarat, and Maharashtra.

The authors call for urgent policy reforms targeting food subsidies and dietary guidelines to promote healthier, protein-rich foods and reduce saturated fats.

Reference: Anjana, R.M., Sudha, V., Abirami, K. et al. Dietary profiles and associated metabolic risk factors in India from the ICMR–INDIAB survey-21. Nat Med (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-025-03949-4

Risk of long COVID in children may be twice as high after a second infection

A new study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases reveals that children and adolescents who were reinfected with COVID-19 during the Omicron wave had more than twice the risk of developing long COVID compared to those who experienced a single infection. The research involved over 460,000 young individuals across 40 pediatric hospitals in the United States, making it the largest study to date examining long-term outcomes of COVID-19 reinfection in children.

The study analyzed electronic health records from January 2022 to October 2023—a period dominated by the highly contagious Omicron variant. By comparing health outcomes after first and second documented COVID-19 infections, researchers aimed to isolate the specific risks associated with reinfection.

The researchers found that within six months of their first infection, approximately 904 children per million developed long COVID. This figure surged to 1,884 children per million after a second infection. The elevated risk remained consistent across subgroups, regardless of vaccination status, age, sex, race, or ethnicity, as well as underlying conditions like overweight and obesity.

Reinfections were associated with a range of rare but serious post-COVID complications including myocarditis (heart inflammation), blood clots, kidney injury, cognitive difficulties, chronic fatigue, and respiratory issues. These outcomes underscore the long-term impact reinfections may have on the pediatric population.

“The increased risk of long COVID following reinfections highlights the continued importance of preventing COVID-19 infections through vaccination and other protective measures such as masking and social distancing,” the authors noted.

While vaccines may not eliminate the risk of infection entirely, they remain the most effective tool for reducing both initial and repeat infections—thereby lowering the risk of persistent symptoms. The researchers call for renewed public health efforts to boost COVID-19 vaccination rates among children and adolescents, emphasizing prevention as key to safeguarding long-term health.

Reference: Long COVID associated with SARS-CoV-2 reinfection among children and adolescents in the omicron era (RECOVER-EHR): a retrospective cohort study, Zhang, Bingyu et al. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, Volume 0, Issue 0