Nomogram Model reliable tool to quantify possibility of postoperative DVT in hip fractures patients

Written By : Dr Supreeth D R |Medically Reviewed By : Dr. Kamal Kant Kohli Published On 2024-02-08T19:45:43+05:30 | Updated On 8 Feb 2024 7:45 PM IST

A nomogram is a method of visualizing complex mathematical models that consider multiple risk factors, predict disease prognoses, and displaying them in an intuitive manner for clinical treatment guidance.

Ruting Bo et al conducted a study to establish a nomogram model for predicting the probability of postoperative deep vein thrombosis (DVT) risk in patients with hip fractures. The study has been published in “Indian Journal of Orthopaedics.”

504 patients were randomly assigned to the training set and validation set, and then divided into a DVT group and a non-DVT group. The study analysed the risk factors for DVT using univariate and multivariate analyses. Based on these parameters, a nomogram model was constructed and validated. The predicting performance of nomogram was evaluated by discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness.

The key findings of the study were:

• The predictors contained in the nomogram model included age, surgical approach, 1-day postoperative D-dimer value and admission ultrasound diagnosis of the lower limb vein.

• Furthermore, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) for the specific DVT risk-stratification nomogram model (0.815; 95% CI 0.746–0.884) was significantly higher than the current model (Caprini) (0.659; 95% CI 0.572–0.746, P < 0.05).

• According to the calibration plots, the prediction and actual observation were in good agreement. In the range of threshold probabilities of 0.2–0.8, the predictive performance of the model on DVT risk could be maximized.

The authors concluded that – “In our research, we have established a beneficial nomogram model using four risk factors to predict the risk of DVT in patients with hip fractures, validated this model and determined its high performance. Moreover, the discriminatory capacity of the nomogram model was superior to that of each variable independently and the Caprini score. Based on the application of the proposed model, clinicians will have the ability to determine with greater accuracy which patients are likely to develop thrombosis and provide them with appropriate adequate prevention and treatment measures.”

MBBS, Dip. Ortho, DNB ortho, MNAMS

Dr Supreeth D R (MBBS, Dip. Ortho, DNB ortho, MNAMS) is a practicing orthopedician with interest in medical research and publishing articles. He completed MBBS from mysore medical college, dip ortho from Trivandrum medical college and sec. DNB from Manipal Hospital, Bengaluru. He has expirence of 7years in the field of orthopedics. He has presented scientific papers & posters in various state, national and international conferences. His interest in writing articles lead the way to join medical dialogues. He can be contacted at editorial@medicaldialogues.in.

Dr. Kamal Kant Kohli

Dr Kamal Kant Kohli-MBBS, DTCD- a chest specialist with more than 30 years of practice and a flair for writing clinical articles, Dr Kamal Kant Kohli joined Medical Dialogues as a Chief Editor of Medical News. Besides writing articles, as an editor, he proofreads and verifies all the medical content published on Medical Dialogues including those coming from journals, studies,medical conferences,guidelines etc. Email: drkohli@medicaldialogues.in. Contact no. 011-43720751