AI can predict premature deaths in people with inflammatory bowel disease, suggests study

Almost half of people who died with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) died prematurely, according to a study published in CMAJ (Canadian Medical Association Journal)  that used machine learning models to predict death.

Canada has some of the highest rates of IBD worldwide, which includes Crohn disease and ulcerative colitis. People with IBD have shorter life expectancy than people without such diseases, and they can develop other chronic health conditions related to their IBD. The study found that people with IBD are at risk for premature death (defined as death before age 75) when they develop other chronic health conditions earlier in life.

As machine learning models can predict premature death in the general population, researchers applied the technology to determine whether it could predict premature deaths among people in Ontario with IBD and other chronic conditions using health care data held at ICES.

“The clinical implication is that chronic conditions developed early in life may be more important in determining a patient’s health trajectory, although further causal research is needed to elucidate this relationship,” writes Dr. Eric Benchimol, a pediatric gastroenterologist and senior scientist at The Hospital for Sick Children (SickKids), professor of pediatrics and epidemiology at the Temerty Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, and a senior core scientist at ICES. “Although our insights are not causal insights, they identify patients potentially at higher risk of premature death, and therefore who might benefit from more coordinated care of their IBD and other chronic conditions,” he says.