Childhood Belly Fat Patterns May Predict Heart and Metabolic Risks by Age 10: Study Suggests

New Delhi: New research presented at the 2025 European Congress on Obesity reveals that children with progressively increasing waist-to-height ratios from infancy face significantly higher cardiometabolic and cardiovascular risks by the age of 10. The study, part of the Copenhagen Prospective Studies on Asthma in Childhood, is the largest of its kind to track the impact of central obesity trajectories in early life on long-term health outcomes.

Researchers followed 700 children from one week of age through to 10 years, analyzing waist-to-height ratio patterns and comparing them with a range of biomarkers for heart and metabolic health. The children underwent 14 clinical assessments, and cardiometabolic risk scores were calculated using key indicators including HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, glucose, blood pressure, and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR).

The analysis identified three distinct waist-to-height ratio trajectories: a stable reference group (comprising about two-thirds of the children), a “rising then stabilising” group, and a “slow-rising” group, each making up roughly one in six participants. Children in the “slow-rising” group—those whose central obesity steadily increased over time—showed the most concerning outcomes. By age 10, they had significantly higher levels of systolic blood pressure, C-peptide, HOMA-IR, GlycA, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, all markers of inflammation and insulin resistance. They also had lower levels of protective HDL cholesterol.

Compared to the reference group, these children had cardiometabolic risk scores 0.79 standard deviations higher and cardiovascular risk scores 0.53 standard deviations higher—indicating a significant shift toward poorer health. Notably, much of the elevated risk was attributed to increased belly fat by age 10.

In contrast, children in the “rising then stabilizing” group had lower HbA1c levels, suggesting better blood sugar control, but slightly elevated ApoB, a known cardiovascular risk factor.

The findings underscore the importance of monitoring waist-to-height ratio early in life as a potential predictor of future heart and metabolic disease and highlight the need for early preventive interventions in at-risk children.

“Our findings highlight that an elevated waist-to-height ratio at age 10 is a key clinical indicator of cardiometabolic risk in children. This reinforces the importance of monitoring central obesity in routine care, not only tracking weight but also specifically measuring central obesity as part of standard assessments. As clinical focus shifts from weight alone to identifying children with early signs of metabolic risk, waist-to-height ratio offers a simple and effective tool for detecting central obesity with cardiometabolic relevance. Identifying children with elevated ratios can help clinicians target those at greater risk of metabolic dysfunction, supporting more personalized interventions and early prevention of long-term complications.” said lead author Dr. David Horner from the University of Copenhagen in Denmark.

Reference: Derived from Copenhagen Prospective Studies on Asthma in Childhood (COPSAC2010)