India's GLP-1 Market Nears Rs 2,000 Crore as Semaglutide Boom Slows, Tirzepatide Regains Momentum

The report shows that the Indian anti-obesity market has nearly touched the Rs 2,000-crore mark, driven primarily by blockbuster molecules tirzepatide and semaglutide. The overall GLP-1 agonist market has grown to Rs 1,906 crore on a moving annual turnover (MAT) basis, registering a remarkable 237 per cent growth over the previous year. Tirzepatide alone accounts for 63 per cent of the market with sales of Rs 1,207 crore, while semaglutide contributes Rs 589 crore and commands a 31 per cent market share.

However, the report suggests that the market may be moving beyond the initial launch-driven expansion phase that followed the entry of semaglutide generics. While semaglutide continues to post strong growth, the pace of expansion appears to be slowing compared to the dramatic spikes witnessed in April after patent expiry.

Monthly data reveal that the overall GLP-1 market grew by 8 per cent in value terms during May, reaching Rs 236 crore from Rs 218 crore in April. Semaglutide sales increased from Rs 88 crore to Rs 93 crore during the month, representing a modest 6 per cent sequential rise compared to the 50 per cent surge recorded in April. Similarly, unit consumption rose by 12 per cent in May versus an exceptional 88 per cent increase in April.

According to PharmaTrac, lower-priced generic versions have dramatically improved patient access to semaglutide, resulting in a substantial increase in consumption volumes. Yet, the report notes that the pace of uptake is now slowing, suggesting that a sizeable portion of previously underserved patients may already have entered therapy.

At the brand level, several semaglutide products continued to gain traction. Among injectables, Novo Nordisk's Ozempic recorded a 27 per cent increase in monthly unit sales, while Eris Lifesciences' Sundae grew 29 per cent. Sun Pharma's Noveltreat and Sematrinity posted strong month-on-month growth of 124 per cent and 66 per cent, respectively. In the oral semaglutide segment, Torrent Pharma's Semalix and Sembolic registered growth of 19 per cent and 32 per cent.

Nevertheless, PharmaTrac cautions that the competitive landscape is becoming increasingly crowded. Of the 35 semaglutide brands launched by 17 companies, only seven demonstrated positive growth in May compared to April. The report warns that inventory build-up may begin to emerge in certain generic semaglutide brands as market growth normalizes.

Looking ahead, PharmaTrac believes the future trajectory of the GLP-1 market will depend on multiple factors, including patient adherence and repeat purchases, the size of the remaining untreated eligible population, and potential regulatory or government interventions affecting patient onboarding.

The report concludes that while generic semaglutides have successfully expanded access and created a new consumption base, sustaining future growth will require reaching additional eligible patients who remain untreated due to affordability constraints. At the same time, the continued strength of innovator brands suggests that physician confidence in established clinical evidence remains a powerful force shaping prescribing behaviour in India's rapidly evolving obesity and diabetes market.