New prediction model helps stratify death risk after esophagectomy for cancer: Study

The results of the study are as follows:

· A total of 8403 patients were included.

· The 30-day mortality rate was 2.0%, and the 90-day mortality rate was 4.2%

· Development (n = 4172) and validation (n = 4231) cohorts were randomly assigned.

· The multiple logistic regression model identified 10 weighted point variables factored into the prognostic score: age, sex, body mass index, performance status, myocardial infarction, connective tissue disease, peripheral vascular disease, liver disease, neoadjuvant treatment, and hospital volume.

· The prognostic scores were categorized into 5 risk groups: very low risk, low risk, medium risk, high risk, and very high risk.

· The model was supported by non-significance in the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The discrimination was 0.68 in the development cohort and 0.64 in the validation cohort.

In this study, on the basis of preoperative variables, the IESG risk prediction model allowed stratification of an individual patient's risk of death within 90 days after esophagectomy. These data suggest that this model can help in the decision-making process when esophageal cancer surgery is being considered and in informed consent.

Reference:

Risk Prediction Model of 90-Day Mortality After Esophagectomy for Cancer

doi:10.1001/jamasurg.2021.2376