History Repeats: From Few Bigs to Many Smalls, and Now AI's Turn

When ChatGPT entered the scene, it wasn't just a ripple. It was a big splash that made tech giants go wide-eyed, and one big giant even failed to match with ChatGPT.

Now, before you could say "machine learning," a hundred AI tools sprouted like mushrooms after a monsoon. Now enters the DeepSeek from China, the latest contestant in this AI talent show. Meanwhile, in India, the government's dropping ₹10,000 crore on the IndiaAI Mission like freebies at a tech parade.

It’s all about boosting not just Large Language Models (LLMs), but also the hyper-local Local Language Models (LoLMs). It’s so nostalgic for the 90s IT boom, when every garage was suddenly sprouting a "tech company."

Déjà vu, anyone?

History doesn’t just repeat—it often does so with a sense of humour. Rather, is a looping playlist, and we keep getting the same old pattern as Bollywood remakes

Haven’t we seen this before?

From geopolitics to technology, and even industries like pharmaceuticals, automobiles, FMCG, and films, the narrative of dominance by a few giants eventually giving way to a swarm of smaller players is like a Friday evening traffic jam.

The current surge in Artificial Intelligence (AI) follows this familiar script. What began with a few big players is rapidly evolving into a landscape teeming with smaller competitors, each vying for a slice of the future.

The 1950s: Two Bigs and the Global Chessboard

In the mid-20th century, the world’s power was split between two titans: the United States and the Soviet Union. The Cold War wasn’t just a political rivalry; it was a global stage dominated by two performers, each vying for applause (or submission). Every move was calculated, every decision scrutinized, and the stakes couldn’t have been higher.

But today? The global stage looks less like a chessboard and more like a chaotic playground. Nations like China, India, Turkey, and smaller players like North Korea are shaping the narrative of the world, often in unpredictable ways.

AI, like geopolitics, started with its “two bigs.” Companies like OpenAI and Google’s DeepMind were at the forefront, leading the race for supremacy. But now, the script is changing, and smaller players worldwide are stepping up. With more than 200 functional, paid or free AI tools, it’s as if we’ve gone from a heavyweight title fight to a royal rumble.

Déjà Vu of 90s

Remember the IT boom of the late 1990s? It started with big names like IBM and Microsoft setting the stage. Then came the flood of startups, each claiming to be the “next big thing.” Some survived (hello, Amazon and Google), while others disappeared faster than a Y2K doomsday prediction.

AI today mirrors this journey. It began with titans like Google and Microsoft, but now, innovative startups from around the globe are challenging the status quo.

The difference is the timeline.

What took decades during the IT boom might take just a few years in AI now. AI startups are like mushrooms after rain—everywhere, growing fast, and some might just be magic.

As someone said, “In AI, a week feels like a decade, and a decade might just be a minute.”

This Pattern Isn’t New

The pharmaceutical industry once revolved around a few big players, like Pfizer and Merck. Over time, smaller biotech firms have emerged, often specializing in niche areas like gene therapy or rare diseases.

Today, the landscape is more fragmented than ever, with innovation coming from unlikely corners. India don’t ask! More than 3 lakh products, little more than 40% of industry with top 10 players, and hundreds of companies giving nightmares to the so-called titans of the pharma with some of the other brands or therapies.

Quite a similar situation in automotive industry began with giants like Ford and General Motors. For decades, these companies ruled the roads across the world. Then came the rise of many niche players which I need not name, disrupting the narrative.

Today, even smaller firms and startups are stepping into the electric vehicle (EV) market, signalling a shift from centralized power to a more distributed dynamic.

FMCG showed same genes too. Brands like Coca-Cola and Unilever once dominated FMCG. But with changing consumer preferences, smaller, local brands are finding their footing.

Organic, artisanal, and locally sourced products are chipping away at the dominance of the traditional giants. Hollywood or Bollywood, the golden age was ruled by major studios.

Now streaming platforms like Netflix, indie studios, and even individual creators on YouTube have decentralized storytelling. The audience now decides, and the power is dispersed.

Humans to blame here as well!

Yes, human behaviour is the reason. Consumerism or consumer consumption has a big role here.

Whether it’s brands, nations, corporations, or films, the desire to dominate, innovate, and survive is universal.

The rise and fall of giants aren’t accidents—they’re the result of ambition, hubris, and adaptability. As history is evident, the giants of today often become the relics of tomorrow.

Take Yahoo, once an internet pioneer, now a cautionary tale. Or Nokia, which went from dominating mobile phones to being overshadowed by newcomers like Apple, Samsung and the list goes endless.

The pattern is clear

What starts with a few big players inevitably transforms into a battle among many. If you are big today, be ready to fight many smalls soon.

AI’s evolution will likely mimic the IT boom, with some companies surviving, many failing, and a few emerging as industry leaders. The current giants—Google, OpenAI, Microsoft—might hold their ground, but the real game-changers could come from today’s scrappy startups.

As we stand here with AI-powered (or its self-learning or powering capacity) boom, need to know that no giant is invincible, and no underdog should be underestimated.

Our belief that this time, it’ll be different is what fuels the ideas, therapies, trends, innovations.