Plastic Waste to Double by 2050 But Study Finds Blueprint to Tackle Plastic Crisis

To help in this effort, Samuel Pottinger and colleagues developed a novel machine learning model to forecast trends in global plastic production, trade, and waste management to 2050. They also simulated the effects of eight plausible policy interventions to mitigate waste and emissions. Pottinger et al. found that, without interventions, annual mismanaged plastic waste is anticipated to almost double by 2050, reaching 121 million metric tons. Concurrently, annual greenhouse gas emissions from the global plastic system are projected to rise by 37% over the same period. However, the authors also show that a combined policy intervention approach involving a production cap, recycling mandate, packaging tax, and infrastructure investment could reduce mismanaged plastic waste by up to 91% and decrease 2050 plastics-related emissions by about a third. “Collectively, these observations provide timely insight into how to maximize the impact of the UN plastic pollution treaty both as it is being drafted and over the longer time horizon of its implementation,” write Pottinger et al. “It is clear from these results that, with sufficient political will, there is enough technical potential to dramatically reduce mismanaged plastic waste and meaningfully address some of the more insidious associated issues.”

Reference: A. Samuel Pottinger et al., Pathways to reduce global plastic waste mismanagement and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.Science0,eadr3837DOI:10.1126/science.adr3837